Lodging Opportunities has been offered to purchase Airbnb shares at USD 145 per share, which equals an overall valuation of Airbnb of USD 43 billion. This is reasonable considering the company`s explosive growth and internal USD 38 billion valuation presented more than a year ago. Investing into the Company represents the only opportunity for smaller individual investors to invest indirectly into Airbnb before its expected IPO in 2020 or 2021. This type of high return/ low risk pre IPO unicorn investment is usually reserved for large institutional investors.
At the end of 2018 Airbnb internally valued the company at 10x revenue. This valuation was also reflected in the secondary market. Applying this Value/ Revenue multiple to future sales generates an exit value resulting in a 2X return in 2021 on stocks purchased by Lodging Opportunities. 2021 is the expected exit year. The return estimate is highly conservative as we expect significant multiple expansion post the IPO.
Revenue estimate: Bloomberg stated that Airbnb generated USD 2.6 billion in revenue in 2017 and was profitable. Forbes estimated USD 3.8 billion in 2018 revenue. It has been reported from several sources that Airbnb grew by 31% YoY in Q2 2019. This growth rate has been used to find a 2019 revenue estimate. Furthermore, it is expected 30% and 25% growth in 2020 and 2021 respectively based on the historic trend.